At the start of the agrifood value chain are the industries and activities that supply the resources required for production. Inputs span industrial sectors from large scale mining of fertilizer components to research laboratories developing new seeds. Inputs can be divided into consumable supplies and capital components. Consumables cover inputs such as land, water and seeds, supplemented by agro-chemicals, veterinary medicines, energy and packing materials. Capital components are machines, tools and equipment, including water management systems.
• An additional 70 million hectares of land will be put to agricultural use by 2050
• Efforts to restore degraded agricultural land could produce an additional 9.5 billion tons of food
• By 2050 global fertilizer demand is projected to increase 60%
• Weed control relies almost exclusively on chemical treatment but herbicide resistance is growing
• Of 30,000 edible plant species, five cereal crops provide 60% of the world’s caloric consumption
• 20 million hectares of additional irrigated land will be in use by 2050, an investment of €132B
The drive to produce more food will require more inputs, particularly land and agro-chemicals but will increasingly depend on more efficient use of resources to get more food from the same amount of inputs. In the case of land, some production can be delivered by urban and vertical farms, but investment will be required to expand production on new land, particularly to produce the grain and oil crops that form the base of animal feeds and global diets. The challenge of simultaneously increasing the productivity of land will drive investments in more efficient use of water, agro-chemicals, seeds and animal science. How this balance between new production and more productivity is struck will be central to sustainability of the sector.
Innovation will lead the way in improving supply of many inputs. Improvements in robotics and machines will allow labor to be more productive and for inputs to be applied to crops more precisely. Biological soil additives can improve plant uptake of nutrients and improving natural pest resistance, reducing need for application of crop chemicals. New veterinarian medicines will reduce reliance on antibiotics while new feeds will permit expansion of protein supply chains in the aquaculture sector.
Labor inputs present a range of challenges. Changing immigration patterns have already had direct impact on farming operations with the US, the UK and Europe experiencing harvest loss due to disrupted labor supply. In many emerging markets, urbanization is reducing labor supply just as mechanization and technology offer the potential to increase labor productivity. Small farmers will face particular challenges in accessing these tools to improving productivity due to costs, market access and attachment to traditional farmer techniques.
